Cybersecurity in health sector: a systematic review of the literature

Currently, health centers are being affected by various cyberattacks putting at risk the confidential information of their patients and the organization because they do not have a plan or tools to help them mitigate these cyberattacks, which is important to know what measures to take to protect the privacy of personal data. The present work was carried out under a systematic literature review, which aims to show the importance of cybersecurity in the health sector knowing which tools are the most used and efficient to prevent a cyberattack. A systematic review of 301 articles was carried out, 79 of which are aligned with the objective set, fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search for information was carried out in the Scopus and Dimensions databases. The analysis carried out has resulted in good information that was compiled for the development of this topic, being favorable thanks to the different research of different authors

Mobile App Prototype for Course Management in Secondary Education

In the last decade, mobile applications have shown an expansion to a great diversity of uses that can be made, which has influenced at different levels (economic, cultural, political), as in the area of learning where it has played a very important role in learning, since now with the development of technologies, children and adolescents are very interested in these new technologies and it is easier for them to use them, which also supports them in learning a great diversity of subjects of their own interest. That is why in this work a prototype of a mobile application for the management of mobile education using the Scrum methodology at the Norbert Wiener University of Lima-Peru, knowing that there are learning problems in students in the classroom, for this, want to provide a mobile application that supports the student to improve their learning. As a result, obtained from the study, was a prototype of a mobile application to improve learning in the Monte Carmelo private school in Lima-Peru, where a virtual model of the mobile application is shown, register the user, login where you can view their classes and share their class assignments, facilitating the user to enter their class and study material, this was achieved using balsamiq, the Scrum methodology with its four phases. The results of the survey conducted to the experts show that in most of the questions they gave a high scale, with the highest average of 4.91 with a standard deviation of 0.302 and only one low scale obtained of 1.45 on average with a standard deviation of 0.52

"The Public Health Contribution of Sentiment Analysis of Monkeypox Tweets to Detect Polarities Using the CNN-LSTM Model"

"Monkeypox is a rare disease caused by the monkeypox virus. This disease was considered eradicated in 1980 and was believed to affect rodents and not humans. However, recent years have seen a massive outbreak of monkeypox in humans, setting off worldwide alerts from health agencies. As of September 2022, the number of confirmed cases in Peru had reached 1964. Although most monkeypox patients have been discharged, we cannot neglect the monitoring of the population with respect to the monkeypox virus. Lately, the population has started to express their feelings and opinions through social media, specifically Twitter, as it is the most used social medium and is an ideal space to gather what people think about the monkeypox virus. The information imparted through this medium can be in different formats, such as text, videos, images, audio, etc. The objective of this work is to analyze the positive, negative, and neutral feelings of people who publish their opinions on Twitter with the hashtag #Monkeypox. To find out what people think about this disease, a hybrid-based model architecture built on CNN and LSTM was used to determine the prediction accuracy. The prediction result obtained from the total monkeypox data was 83% accurate. Other performance metrics were also used to evaluate the model, such as specificity, recall level, and F1 score, representing 99%, 85%, and 88%, respectively. The results also showed the polarity of feelings through the CNN-LSTM confusion matrix, where 45.42% of people expressed neither positive nor negative opinions, while 19.45% expressed negative and fearful feelings about this infectious disease. The results of this work contribute to raising public awareness about the monkeypox virus.

Search and classify topics in a corpus of text using the latent dirichlet allocation model

This work aims at discovering topics in a text corpus and classifying the most relevant terms for each of the discovered topics. The process was performed in four steps: first, document extraction and data processing; second, labeling and training of the data; third, labeling of the unseen data; and fourth, evaluation of the model performance. For processing, a total of 10,322 "curriculum" documents related to data science were collected from the web during 2018-2022. The latent dirichlet allocation (LDA) model was used for the analysis and structure of the subjects. After processing, 12 themes were generated, which allowed ranking the most relevant terms to identify the skills of each of the candidates. This work concludes that candidates interested in data science must have skills in the following topics: first, they must be technical, they must have mastery of structured query language, mastery of programming languages such as R, Python, java, and data management, among other tools associated with the technology.Campus Lima Centr

Alkaloids of Pharmacological Importance in <em>Catharanthus roseus</em>

Catharanthus roseus is a plant of the Apocynaceae family. It produces over 120 alkaloids, 70 of which are pharmacologically active. C. roseus produces vinblastine, utilized in treating Hodgkin’s disease; testicular tumors, breast carcinoma, choriocarcinoma, Kaposi sarcoma and Letterer-Siwe disorder. Vincristine is used to treat acute lymphocytic leukemia, lymphosarcoma, lympho-granulomatosis and in solid infant tumors. The preparation process of 1 kg of vincristine has a cost of US$3.5 million, while vinblastine has a cost of US$1 million. Therefore, 530 kg of dry leaves are necessary to produce 1 kg of vincristine and half a ton for getting 1 g of vinblastine. The high cost is due to the low concentrations in the aerial portion. Due to the high market value and its effectiveness in different medical treatments, this chapter deals with the pharmacological application of the C. roseus alkaloids

Bactericidal effect of silver nanoparticles against propagation of Clavibacter michiganensis infection in Lycopersicon esculentum Mill

This study explored the use of silver nanoparticle as a bactericidal against the propagation of Clavibacter michiganensis onto tomatoes (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill). In Mexico, tomato production covers about 73% of the total vegetable production but it is affected by outbreak of bacteria canker caused by Clavibacter michiganensis subspecies michiganensis (Cmm). Silver ions possess inhibitor properties, bactericides and high specter antimicrobials. In this study, 6 groups of culture were prepared using 6 different petri dishes where silver nanoparticles of varying concentrations (120, 84, 48, 24, 12 and 0 μg) were added. Furthermore, each group was observed for 20 min, 1, 2, 12 and 24 h. The optimum concentration is 84 μg, which shows an average of 2 Cmm colonies after 20 min. Further increase to 120 μg shows no significant change. However, the average colonies was observed for 48 μg after 1, 2, 12, and 24 h. The obtained results indicate that silver nanoparticles are a promising inhibitor, bactericide and high a specter antimicrobial for treatment or prevention of Cmm

Informe de Política Monetaria - Octubre 2020

Recent data suggest that the technical staff’s appraisals of the condition and development of economic activity, inflation and the labor market have been in line with current trends, marked by a decline in demand and the persistence of ample excess productive capacity. A significant projected fall in output materialized in the second quarter, contributing to a decline in inflation below the 3% target and reflected in a significant deterioration of the labor market. A slow recovery in output and employment is expected to continue for the remainder of 2020 and into next year, alongside growing inflation that should remain below the target. The Colombian economy is likely to undergo a significant recession in 2020 (GDP contraction of 7.6%), though this may be less severe than projected in the previous report (-8.5%). Output is expected to have begun a slow recovery in the second half of this year, though it is not projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 amid significant global uncertainty. The output decline in the first half of 2020 was less severe than anticipated, thanks to an upward revision in first-quarter GDP and a smaller contraction in the second quarter (-15.5%) than had been projected (-16.5%). Available economic indicators suggest an annual decline in GDP in the third quarter of around 9%. No significant acceleration of COVID-19 cases that would imply a tightening of social distancing measures is presumed for the remainder of this year or in 2021. In that context, a gradual opening of the economy would be expected to continue, with supply in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic recovering slowly as restrictions on economic activity continue to be relaxed. On the spending side, an improvement in consumer confidence, suppressed demand for goods and services, low interest rates, and higher expected levels of foreign demand should contribute to a recovery in output. A low base of comparison would also help explain the expected increase in GDP in 2021. Based on the conditions laid out above, economic growth in 2020 is expected to be between -9% and -6.5%, with a central value of -7.6%. Growth in 2021 is projected to be between 3% and 7%, with a central value of 4.6% (Graph 1.1). Upward revisions compared to the July report take into account a lower-than-expected fall in first-semester growth and a somewhat faster recovery in the third quarter in some sectors. The forecast intervals for 2020 and 2021 growth tightened somewhat but continue to reflect a high degree of uncertainty over theevolution of the pandemic, the easures required to deal with it, and their effects on global and domestic economic activity.Box 1. Evaluation of the Predictive Capacity of Expected Inflation Measures. Authors: César Anzola-Bravo, Anderson Grajales-Olarte, Alexander Guarín-López, Julián Camilo Mateus-Gamboa, Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, Carlos Andrés Quicazán-Moreno, Juan Sebastián Rojas-Moreno, Cristhian Hernando Ruiz-CardozoBox 2. Literature Review: Weighing the Drivers of Portfolio Flows to Emerging Market Economies. Authors: Andrés Sánchez-Jabb

Monetary Policy Report - January 2021

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.Box I. Macroeconomic Expectations: Analysis of the Monthly Survey of Economic Analyst Expectations. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales, César Anzola, Jonathan Muño

Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.Box 1. The Transmission of Changes in the Monetary Policy Interest Rate (MPR) to Credit Institutions’ Interest Rates (CI). Authors: Isleny Carranza Amortegui, Deicy Cristiano Botia, Eliana González Molano, Carlos Huertas CamposBox 2. Analysis of Macroeconomic Expectations implicit in Financial Market Instruments. Authors: Hernando Vargas, Alexander Guarín, Anderson Grajales-Olarte, Jonathan Muño

Monetary Policy Report - July de 2021

Macroeconomic summary The Colombian economy sustained numerous shocks in the second quarter, pri¬marily related to costs and supply. The majority of these shocks were unantic¬ipated or proved more persistent than expected, interrupting the recovery in economic activity observed at the beginning of the year and pushing overall inflation above the target. Core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) increased but remained low, in line with the technical staff’s expectations. A third wave of the pandemic, which became more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak, began in early April. This had both a high cost in terms of human life and a negative impact on Colombia's economic recovery. Between May and mid-June roadblocks and other disruptions to public order had a sig¬nificant negative effect on economic activity and inflation. The combination and magnitude of these two shocks likely led to a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) compared to the first quarter. Roadblocks also led to a significant in¬crease in food prices. The accumulated effects of global disruptions to certain value chains and increased international freight transportation prices, which since the end of 2020 have restricted supply and increased costs, also affected Colombia’s economy. The factors described above, which primarily affected the consumer price index (CPI) for goods and foods, explain to a significant degree the technical staff’s forecast errors and the increase in overall inflation above the 3% target. By contrast, increases in core inflation and in prices for regulated items were in line with the technical staff’s expectations, and can be explained largely by the elimination of various price relief measures put in place last year. An increase in perceived sovereign risk and the upward pressures that this im¬plies on international financing costs and the exchange rate were further con¬siderations. Despite significant negative shocks, economic growth in the first half of the year (9.1%) is now expected to be significantly higher than projected in the April re¬port (7.1%), a sign of a more dynamic economy that could recover more quickly than previously forecast. Diverse economic activity figures have indicated high¬er-than-expected growth since the end of 2020. This suggests that the negative effects on output from recurring waves of COVID-19 have grown weaker and less long-lasting with subsequent outbreaks. Nevertheless, the third wave of the coro¬navirus, and to an even greater degree the previously mentioned roadblocks and disruptions to public order, likely led to a decline in GDP in the second quar¬ter compared to the first. Despite this, data from the monthly economic tracking indicator (ISE) for April and May surpassed expectations, and new sector-level measures of economic activity suggest that the negative impact of the pandemic on output continues to moderate, amid reduced restrictions on mobility and im¬provements in the pace of vaccination programs. Freight transportation registers (June) and unregulated energy demand (July), among other indicators, suggest a significant recovery following the roadblocks in May. Given the above, annual GDP growth in the second quarter is expected to have been around 17.3% (previously 15.8%), explained in large part by a low basis of comparison. The technical staff revised its growth projection for 2021 upward from 6% to 7.5%. This forecast, which comes with an unusually high degree of uncertain¬ty, assumes no additional disruptions to public order and that any new waves of COVID-19 will not have significant additional negative effects on economic activity. Recovery in international demand, price levels for some of Colombia’s export com¬modities, and remittances from workers abroad have all performed better than projected in the previous report. This dynamic is expected to continue to drive recovery in the national income over the rest of the year. Continued ample international liquidity, an acceleration in vacci¬nation programs, and low interest rates can also be ex¬pected to favor economic activity. Improved performance in the second quarter, which led to an upward growth revision for all components of spending, is expected to continue, with the economy returning to 2019 production levels at the end of 2021, earlier than estimated in the April report. This forecast continues to account for the short-term effects on aggregate demand of a tax reform package along the lines of what is currently being pro-posed by the national government. Given the above, the central forecast scenario in this report projects growth in 2021 of 7.5% and in 2022 of 3.1% (Graph 1.1). In this scenar¬io, economic activity would nonetheless remain below potential. The noted improvement in these projections comes with a high degree of uncertainty. Annual inflation increased more than expected in June (3.63%) as a result of changes in food prices, while growth in core inflation (1.87%) was similar to projections. The in¬creased CPI for foods would be expected to persist for the remainder of the year, contributing to inflation remaining above the target. Overall and core inflation would be ex¬pected to return to close to 3% at the end of 2022, amid a deceleration in growth in the CPI for foods and reduced ex¬cess productive capacity. Recent increases in international freight and agricultural goods prices, as well as the live¬stock cycle and increased meat exports, have exerted up¬ward pressure on food prices, primarily in processed foods (see Box 21). In addition to these persistent factors affecting prices, national roadblocks and related disruptions to pub¬lic order in several cities throughout May and parts of June were reflected in a significant restriction of supply and an unexpected annual increase in the CPI for foods (8.52%). Inflation in regulated items (5.93%) also accelerated, due to a low basis of comparison on gasoline prices and the par¬tial lapse of relief measures on utility rates that were put in place in 2020. Inflation excluding food and regulated items recovered in line with projections to 1.87%, due to the rein¬statement of indirect taxes on certain goods and services that had been temporarily eliminated in 2020, and to up¬ward pressures exerted by prices for foods away from home (FAH), among other factors. The increase in perishable foods prices is expected to be reversed over the course of the year, assuming an absence of additional, long-lasting blockades of national roads. Increased processed food pric¬es would be expected to persist and contribute to keeping inflation above the target at the end of the year. Inflation excluding foods and regulated items is expected to contin¬ue to exhibit an upward trend, as excesses in productive ca¬pacity continue to close, and register a temporary increase in March 2022 largely due to the reinstatement of the FAH consumption tax. Given the above, overall year-end infla¬tion is expected to be 4.1% in 2021 and 3.1% in 2022 (Graph 1.2), and core inflation is expected to be 2.6% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022 (Graph 1.3). The technical staff has interpreted the overall behavior of prices in the CPI excluding food and regulated items, alongside continued unexpected increases in economic activity, as signs of more ample excess productive capaci¬ty in the economy. This would be expected to persist over the next two years, with the output gap closing at the end of that period. Increased economic growth suggests a less negative output gap than estimated last quarter. Nevertheless, the behavior of core inflation, especially in services, suggests that potential GDP has recovered to an unanticipated degree and that ample excess capacity con¬tinues, with a persistent effect on aggregate demand. La¬bor market observation supports this interpretation, with persistent high levels of unemployment and stagnation in the recovery of jobs lost as a result of the pandemic. Increased inflation can be explained largely by shocks re¬lated to costs and supply, and by the dissolution of some price relief measures put in place in 2020. The growth and inflation forecasts described above would be consistent with a less negative output gap closing more quickly across the forecast horizon compared to the projection from the April report. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding excess capacity is very high and constitutes a risk to the forecast (Graphic 1.4). The fiscal accounts outlook deteriorated, Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) down¬graded Colombia’s credit rating, roadblocks and disrup¬tions to public order affected output, and the country faced a third wave of COVID-19 that was more severe and prolonged than the previous outbreak. These factors were reflected in an increased risk premium and depreciation of the peso compared to the dollar. This occurred in a favor¬able context in regard to foreign income, as international prices for oil, coffee, and other Colombian export goods in¬creased. This contributed to a recovery in the terms of trade and in the national income and mitigated upward pres¬sures on the risk premium and the exchange rate. Expected oil prices in this report are USD 68 per barrel (previous¬ly USD 61/bl) for 2021 and USD 66/bl (previously USD 60/ bl) for 2022. This increased trajectory shows convergence to oil prices below recently observed levels, as a result of increased global supply that would more than offset increased demand. As a result, the recent price increase is expected to be temporary. International financial conditions are expected to become somewhat less fa¬vorable in the current macroeconomic context, despite the improvement in foreign income due to increased demand and some higher prices for oil and other export products. Growth in foreign demand was better than expected in the previous report, with projections for 2021 and 2022 increasing from 5.2% to 6.0% and from 3.4% to 3.5%, respectively. For the year to date, figures for economic activity suggest more dynamic foreign demand than previously expected. Output recovery has been faster in the United States and China than in Latin America, as economic reactivation in the latter has been limit¬ed by outbreaks of COVID-19, restricted vaccine supplies, and a lack of fiscal space to confront the pandemic, among other factors. The positive dynamic in foreign goods trade has come amid a deterioration in value chains and a significant increase in commodities and freight prices (see Box 3). Inflation in the United States has been unexpectedly high, with observed and expected values remaining above the target, while growth forecasts have been revised upward. As a result, the beginning of a normalization in monetary policy in the U.S. could come earlier than previously projected. This report estimates that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate increase will come at the end of 2022 (before the first quarter of 2023). Colombia’s risk premium is projected to be higher than forecast in the April report, and is expected to remain on a growth trajectory given the country’s accumulation of public and external debt. This would be expected to contribute to an increase in international financing costs on the forecast horizon. An expansionary monetary policy stance continues to support favorable do¬mestic financing conditions. The interbank rate and the reference banking indi¬cator (IBR)remained consistent with the policy interest rate in the second quar¬ter. Average deposit and credit rates continued at historical lows, despite some observed increases at the end of June. The peso-denominated credit portfolio continued to decelerate in annual terms and, between March and June, growth in the household credit portfolio accelerated, primarily related to housing pur¬chases. Disbursements and recovery in the commercial credit portfolio were significant, returning to high levels observed one year ago, when businesses required significant levels of liquidity to confront the economic effects of the pandemic. Meanwhile, credit risk increased, liability provisions remained high, and some banks withdrew from the balance of their past-due portfolios. Nev¬ertheless, financial system earnings have recovered, and liquidity and solvency levels remain above regulatory minimums. Beginning with this report, a new methodology will be used to quantify and communicate the uncertainty surrounding central macroeconomic fore¬casts in the context of an active monetary policy. The new methodology, known as predictive densities (PD), will be explained in detail in Box 1. PD methodology provides probability distributions of the main forecast vari¬ables (e.g. growth, inflation) based on the balance of risks of key factors that, in the technical staff’s judgment, could affect the economy on the forecast horizon. These distributions reflect the result of possible shocks (to external variables, prices, and economic activity) that the economy could sustain and the transmission effects considering Colombia’s economic structure and anticipated monetary policy responses. As a result, PD allows for the quantification of uncertainty around the central forecast and of its bias. In this report, the PD exercise shows a downward bias for both economic growth and output gap, while the op¬posite is shown for headline inflation (Graphs 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3). The balance of risks indicates more complex mone¬tary policy dilemmas than previously expected. The most significant anticipated risk regarding external financing would be a return to less favorable conditions in a sce¬nario in which the U.S. Federal Reserve promptly raises interest rates. Such a decision could come as the result of current levels of economic growth and higher-than-ex¬pected employment generating significant inflationary pressures on that country. Uncertainty regarding Colom¬bia’s fiscal outlook and the subsequent effects on the risk premium and external financing costs represent addi¬tional considerations. The risks to economic growth are mainly downside risks, relating especially to the effects of political and fiscal uncertainty on consumption and investment decisions and the potential for additional waves of COVID-19 and the subsequent effects on eco-nomic activity. Inflation risks take into account the po¬tential for more persistent shocks associated with dis¬ruption to value chains, higher international commodity and food prices, and a slower-than-expected recovery in the national agricultural chain as a result of the recent roadblocks. These would represent upward risks primarily to food and goods prices. The main downside risk to the inflation forecast would come from an increase in rental housing prices below the central scenario projection. This would be explained by weak demand and increased sup¬ply in 2022 as a result of high observed housing sales this year. All told, the PD exercise reveals a downward bias for economic growth forecast, with 90% probability of growth between 6.1% and 9.1% for 2021 and between 0.5% and 4.1% in 2022. The output gap also exhibits a downward bias to the central forecast scenario, primarily in 2022. On the contrary, an upward bias is expected for headline inflation forecast, with 90% probability ranging between 3.7% and 4.9% in 2021 and between 2.2% and 4.7% in 2022. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in June and July the BDBR left the bench¬mark interest rate unchanged at 1.75% (Graph 1.5).Box 1. Characterizing and Communicating the Balance of Risks of Macroeconomic Forecasts: A Predictive Densities Approach for Colombia Authors: Juan Camilo Méndez-Vizcaíno, César Ánzola-Bravo, Alexander Guarín y Anderson Grajales-OlarteBox 2. Analysis of Recent Disturbances in Global Logistics Chains and their Impact on Colombian Import Markets. Authors: Aarón Garavito, Juan Diego Cortés, Stefany Andrea Moreno, Alex Fernando Pérez y Juan Esteban CarranzaBox 3. The Upward Dynamics of Food Prices. Authors: Edgar Caicedo G., Andrea Salazar D. y Jesús Daniel Sarmiento S